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Global Warming Issue

Global warming is an issue that has attracted discussions at international level from various government agencies and bodies. The effects of emitting greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane are perceived to have significant effects on the atmospheric conditions hence the changes in climatic patterns. Whereas some researchers argue that the effects have been overestimated, there are new studies that have identified other contributors to global warming. For instance, emission of black carbon poses the second most serious threat to climatic balance after greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. Some scientists believe that the effects of global warming as a result of black particles and solar activity have been underestimated, while others believe that global warming as a result of greenhouses gases like carbon emissions have been overrated.

According to findings from various researches in “The New York Times” the release of tiny black particles into the atmosphere is a more serious cause of global warning than previously thought. In fact, this is the second major contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide. According to Rosenthal, “researchers said that if indirect warming effects of the particles are factored in, they may be trapping heat at almost three times the previous estimated rate” (1). The significance of this finding is that the implications of release of tiny black particles in the atmosphere may have been previously underestimated. Scientists would have to rethink and come up with new strategies to curb global warming by paying closer attention to the repercussions of emitting black particles into the atmosphere. Mathematical models initially used to predict the impact of particles were too simple to give the right verdict on the repercussions. Nonetheless, the effects of black carbon particles on global warming may be overrated because whereas emitted carbon dioxide takes decades in the atmosphere, “black carbon generally persists in the air for a period of 7 to 10 days, so its presence across the globe is far more variable” (Rosenthal 1). These findings points out to need to change environmental policies geared towards meeting national fuel efficiency in modern machine production.

The depletion of the ozone layer as a result of greenhouse effect in the global context is overrated as there are no scientific backings to the claims. This political propaganda has no scientific evidence. According to Salmon, “Whatever role might be played by global warming in domestic and international politics, there is no solid scientific evidence to support the theory that the earth is warming because of man-made greenhouse gases,” (2). Similarly, Evans believes that “The whole idea that carbon dioxide is the main cause of the recent global warming is based on a guessthat was proved false by several evidences”. One of the evidence provided by the president of National Academy of Engineering, Robert White, is that there are growing concerns on the real impact of carbon emissions from inverted pyramid of knowledge backed by political machinations without real scientific proofs. Long before human beings existed, greenhouse effect maintained the earth’s natural climate, which does not vary in comparison with the satellite measurements. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC) estimates are overrated and vary greatly from the satellite measurements that are the most accurate. The IPCC report itself concludes that reviews by climate scientists leads to myriad reliability issues on the model’s applicability (Salmon 3-4). In sum, climate modeling is a tasking and expensive venture, as computer simulations alone do not have much predicting powers.

Understanding the effect of global warming requires focus on the variations of solar activity due to its correlation with change of climate that calls for the revamp of the evaluation methods of the solar influence. According to Peter, North, and Wigley, examination of the space-borne solar radiometry gives an indication that “the sun brightens during periods of high activity, when bright magnetic structures more than compensate for the dimming caused by sunspots” (1). Nonetheless, with a variance of only 0.08% of the irradiance over an 11-year period, there may be little impact of solar activity on climatic changes (Peter et al. 1). What remain to be studied are the sunspot cycle and its impacts on irradiance variations for a period of more than 11 years. For instance, new climate models examine the effects of ultraviolet, (UV) flux differences to study the UV impact on the stratospheric ozone. Nonetheless, in the 20th century, the UV flux indications do not pose significant threat to the global temperature (Peter et al. 4). It cannot therefore be concluded that the impact of direct solar irradiance should be taken into account when modeling climate control parameters. There lacks adequate scientific evidence now on the impact of solar activity in terms of luminosity variations; but, long-term variations of the Sun cannot be ignored. New technologies like cryogenic radiometers can advance research into this field other than depending on the speculative models.        

In conclusion, my arguments support the claims made by Rosenthal and Peter et al. that the real impact of global warming may have been overrated. This may be true due to the increasing political interests at the international level. Political influence is significant in establishing the cause of research that scientists should undertake, because the governments sponsor the studies and as such, may dictate the research methodology. Whereas my research will establish the limitations of Rosenthal and Peter et al. studies, it would be impossible to agree or challenge Salmon’s views. This is because the author contributes on a very different aspect that the impact of black carbon in global warming may be underestimated. The incorporation of my research will therefore be driven by the perception that the impact of global warming and the changing climatic conditions are overstated. This will be possible if the new research can prove that political interests determine the course of empirical studies, because governments have the ability to finance very expensive scientific ventures.       

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